Point/Counterpoint: PECOTA As A Viable Predictor of Team Record

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From time to time, Camp Tiger Claw and I discuss baseball like calm, thoughtful intellectuals. This is not one of those times. This is one of those chats where we just throw feces at each other like monkeys.

Please enjoy our conversation, prompted by Geoff Baker's column today regarding Nate Silver's PECOTA system for predicting individual player performance and whether or not it can be used to predict a team's record.

CTC: Geoff Baker dusted off all the PECOTA's
Rob: whee
I WAS RIGHT I WAS WRIGHT
CTC: they effed up the AL Central as bad as everybody else
Rob: indeed
but you have to understand
rosters change
they do a far better job on individual projections
"And yes, they came close to nailing the M's offensive numbers, predicting a .323 (.318 actual) on-base percentage and a .399 (.392 actual) slugging percentage"
CTC: the updated ones from the end of april suck too
Rob: PECOTA can't predict a bullpen being terribly mismanaged
or Atlanta losing EVERY SINGLE ONE RUN ROAD GAME
it just doesnt work that way
PECOTA can't predict every single yankees pitcher getting hurt...ALTHOUGH EVERYONE ELSE COULD
zing
CTC: well, then so what
what is a team PECOTA good for then
Rob: for getting closer than every single other system
CTC: they're mostly all off by double digits
Rob: which is less than any other predictatron
CTC: pssh
Rob: its true
CTC: it looks exactly as fallible as anything else
Rob: nobody effing predicted the Rays to win 100 games
CTC: so what it's "less wrong"
so what
Rob: that's the goal of sabermetrics
to get less and less wrong every year
until they're right
which will never happen
CTC: zzzzzzz
Rob: because humans are faulty creatures
CTC: interesting
but ultimately
zzzzzzz
Rob: haha indeed
they actually did far better last year
oh well
CTC: so it's as random as anything else
they hit a patch of luck last year
Rob: LESS random
haha no
CTC: that makes no sense
Rob: they hit a patch of BAD luck this year
CTC: something is either random or not random
there aren't degrees of randomness
Rob: right
then i wouldn't call it random
it's not random
CTC: it's useless
these predictions are so far off
Rob: its far from useless
it predicts individual performance quite well
CTC: fine then
i'm saying the team predictions are useless
Rob: i am not going to say you are wrong, but i find them useful
CTC: you forgot to put up canseco
Rob: i know
because you started fighting with me
haahahha
CTC: I WIN
CLASPS HANDS
SHAKES THEM IN AIR
ON ALTERNATING SIDES OF HEAD
Rob: Geoff Baker was totally wrong though
CTC: i think that's totally viable
Rob: if he had took the time to see WHO WAS ON THE TEAM he'd have known too
CTC: at the beginning of the year you went against all my yankee negativity with PECOTA projects this and that for them
Rob: haha
CTC: so persuasively that i ranked them way higher than i initially wanted to
Rob: dont blame me bitch!
if you had listened to me, you'd have put the Mariners last
CTC: right
Rob: and the Rays in second
CTC: two totally different outcomes
based on the same system
RANDOM
Rob: it's not random
the yankees were hurt by injuries
to the starting rotation
POINT COUNTERPOINT
CTC: they scored 200 LESS RUNS THAN LAST YEAR
Rob: you're the dummy who listened to a Yankees fan when making an AL East prediction
haha
CTC: That also didn't help
Rob: indeed
PECOTA fucked that up
PECOTA fucked up Cano
CTC: can we go back and use this conversation as a point/counterpoint
it's stayed pretty much on track
CTC: just take out most of my 715 "fucks"
Rob: and i'll take out all the good points you made
to make me appear wiser


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14 Comments

CTC: Is this love
Rob: That I'm feelin'
CTC: Is this the love
Rob: That I've been searchin' foooorrrrr
CTC: That I've been searchin' foooorrrrr
Rob: OMG jinx
CTC: I owe you a coke
Rob: You owe me more than that
CTC: It's soooooo true

It's a cupid cupid cupid disguise that more or less survives.

This was very interzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Needs more "fucks."

I bet Rob and CTC had a heavy make out session after this debate.

Needs more "fucks."

That's what she said.

"...throw feces at each other like monkeys. "

Actually, that would have been more entertaining and made more sense.

I think it makes a lot of sense if you read the linked article.

THEY AREN'T JUST BLUE TO MATCH YOUR MOOD, FROWNYPANTS.

...where we just throw feces at each other...

Careful, Rob. Eastside Dave got suspended for a week for that.

Oh, so THAT'S why I've been enjoying Ron and Fez this week.

FACE!

THIS! IS THE FUCK!

Palehose is anxiously awaiting your write up on today's afternoon game.

So...no August wrapup discussion then?

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